Current projections

Current projections

Income and Cost Rates Under Intermediate Assumptions. Source: 2009 OASDI Trustees Report.

Projections were made by the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds (OASDI) in their 69th annual report dated May 12, 2009. According to these projections, based on the system's current revenue and benefit structure, expenses will exceed tax receipts beginning in 2016. The trust fund is projected to continue to grow for several years thereafter because the analyses assume interest income from loans made to the is available to cover the difference.

However, the funds from loans made have been spent along with other revenues in the general funds in satisfying annual budgets. At some point, however, absent any change in the law, the Social Security Administration will finance payment of benefits through the net redemption of the assets in the trust fund. Because those assets consist solely of U.S. government securities, their redemption will represent a call on the federal government's general fund, which for decades has been borrowing the Trust Fund's surplus and applying it to its expenses to partially satisfy budget deficits. To finance such a projected call on the general fund, some combination of increasing taxes, cutting other government spending or programs, selling government assets, or borrowing would be required.

The balances in the trust fund are projected to be depleted either by 2037 (OASDI Trustees' 2009 projection), or by 2052 (Congressional Budget Office's projection) assuming proper and continuous repayment of the outstanding treasury notes. At that point, under current law, the system's benefits would have to be paid from the FICA tax alone. Revenues from FICA are projected at that point to be continue to cover about 76% of projected Social Security benefits if no change is made to the current tax and benefit schedules